Market Insights for 2025: A Half-term Report

Natural Resources | Investment Themes | Strategic Outlook

By GrowEasy | Dubai, UAE | 28 June 2025

Grid Modernization Image

Executive Summary

• 2025 is a turning point for the natural resource sector: energy security, industrial decarbonization, and regional value chain shifts are reshaping investor priorities.

• Investors are increasingly demanding operational resilience, digital readiness, and low-carbon optionality in assets across oil & gas, power, chemicals, and mining.

• Middle East remains the epicenter for capital-rich diversification; Africa accelerates on minerals and grid reforms; FSU enters renewed competition between state and private capital.

• Key investment trends:

  • 🛢️ Energy resilience + LNG rebalancing

  • ⚡ Grid modernization + distributed energy systems

  • 🧪 Petrochemical restructuring and green hydrogen emergence

  • 🪨 Critical minerals and downstream integration strategies

Sector-Wide Investment Trends

Oil & Gas

• Demand shifts: Long-term oil demand softening in OECD offset by petrochemical growth and Asian consumption.

• MEA plays:

  • KSA doubling down on Aramco downstream + CCS hubs (Jubail).

  • UAE expanding ADNOC’s LNG and carbon strategy.

• PE angle: Midstream (terminals, pipelines) and services (O&M, EPC) ripe for consolidation and cost optimization.

• Watchlist:

  • Iraq infrastructure privatization

  • Angola IOC divestitures

  • Kazakhstan project debottlenecking

Power

• Transition gap: Grid demand surges, yet capacity additions struggle to meet reliability goals.

• Themes:

  • Distributed energy (DER) in Africa and CIS

  • Privatized transmission & smart metering in MENA

  • Hybrid storage models in high-renewables environments

• Investor focus:

  • Sovereign funds exploring merchant IPPs

  • PE funds backing energy-as-a-service models

  • HNWIs entering utility-scale solar via local JV routes

Chemicals

• Cost stress: Global oversupply + high input costs = asset distress in Europe & Asia.

• Opportunity zone: Middle East & Central Asia as feedstock-advantaged production hubs.

• Strategic moves:

  • Sabic, Borouge targeting green polymers and recycling verticals.

  • Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan pushing chemical complex modernization via international JV.

• Themes to watch:

  • Bio-based chemicals, especially in Africa’s agro-corridors

  • Circular economy plays (chemical recycling, low-carbon methanol)

  • Strategic tech licenses with embedded ESG/AI capability

Mining & Critical Minerals

• Supply risk = strategic opportunity: Investors are shifting from pure extraction to processing and logistics enablement.

• Africa:

  • DRC, Zambia expanding cobalt, copper, lithium refining with UAE & Chinese capital.

  • South Africa reviving its rare earths production strategies.

• FSU:

  • Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan exploring battery supply chain participation (e.g., graphite, nickel)

• Investor dynamics:

  • SWFs co-investing in logistics corridors

  • PE firms targeting infrastructure-light, high-IRR pilot sites

  • ESG-sensitive financing key to derisk reputational exposure

Regional Insights

Middle East

• Investment themes:

  • “Brown to Green” transformations (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia, CCS)

  • Sovereign-local partnerships (e.g., ADNOC-Taqa, PIF-Ma’aden)

  • Industrial platformization (e.g., Aramco Industrial Investment Co)

• Entry opportunities:

  • Non-core asset spinouts (drilling, logistics)

  • Technology commercialization (e.g., reservoir AI, energy trading platforms)

Africa

• Power & minerals lead investment activity

  • Egypt, Morocco scaling renewables

  • Mozambique, Namibia entering hydrogen & ammonia export race

• Barriers:

  • Political instability, FX risk, logistics gaps

• Top opportunities:

  • Hybrid grids + off-grid solutions

  • Mineral downstreaming (Africa-to-Africa industrial hubs)

  • Localized O&M + JV asset rehabilitation

Former Soviet Union (FSU)

• Strategic battleground:

  • Balancing Russian/Chinese vs. Western/JV capital influence

• Hot sectors:

  • Uzbekistan: renewable hydrogen + ammonia

  • Kazakhstan: critical minerals & refining capacity

  • Azerbaijan: offshore oil service contracts, TANAP expansion

• Trends:

  • Emphasis on transit diversification (e.g., Middle Corridor logistics)

  • Growing role of Gulf capital in early-stage greenfield ventures

Strategic Themes for 2025 Investors

Resilient Portfolio Construction

• Shift from “growth-at-any-cost” to value resilience and optionality

• Key tactics:

  • Multi-country hedging via asset clustering

  • Prioritizing O&M excellence and turnaround potential

  • Building digital twin capabilities for performance benchmarking

Embedded ESG + Compliance Advantage

• ESG no longer a reporting checkbox – it’s a competitive edge.

• Winning strategies:

  • Local content structuring

  • Emissions tracking + monetization

  • Digital compliance integration

Technology-Backed Asset Plays

• AI + predictive analytics in due diligence, ops, and exit strategy

• Growing demand for:

  • TMaaS (Transformation Mgmt as a Service)

  • DTO4T (Digital Twin Optimization for Turnarounds)

  • Real-time boardroom dashboards

M&A Outlook

• Dry powder + sector distress = wave of consolidation

• Investors should:

  • Target under-managed but fundamentally sound service companies

  • Pursue platform plays with bolt-on potential

  • Watch for sanctions regime shifts in CIS & Africa that affect deal timing

2025 Investor Playbook: Priority Actions

Final Thought

2025 will reward investors who think structurally, act locally, and embed resilience. GrowEasy stands ready to empower your next move with sharp insights, network access, and on-the-ground capability where it matters most.

Explore Deeper

GrowEasy brings clarity, capability, and control to every stage of your investment journey

Connect with the Experts, Unlock Investment Success

Visit www.groweasy.ae or email us at info@groweasy.ae to understand more